UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.