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Just 48 hours prior to the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year backed Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.