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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still